Истории аномалий
Этот сайт, по сути своей, является антиисторическим. Классическая концепция истории предполагает, что определенное действие порождает следствие. Зная причину (набор произвольно набранных исторических фактов) можно предсказать каков будет результат. Данное предположение является фундаментом так называемых общественных наук, политологии, истории и бизнеса. Ливанский философ и трейдер Нассим Николас Талеб в книге “Черный Лебедь” продемонстрировал, что данная концепция не имеет ничего общего с реальностью. Данный сайт лишь иллюстрирует некоторые из мыслей Талеба:
“То, что мы обозначаем термином “Черный Лебедь” – это событие, соответствующее трем следующим атрибутам. Первое – речь идет об аномалии, лежащей вне области привычных ожиданий, так как ничто в прошлом не может нас убедить в его вероятности. Второе – оно оказывает громадное влияние на происходящее. Третье – людская природа понуждает нас сфабриковать обоснование случившемуся после того, как оно произошло, превращая его в объяснимое и предсказуемое.
…Добавьте к этому феномену тот факт, что мы действуем так, как будто его вовсе не существует! И я подразумеваю не только меня, Вас, вашего кузена Джои, но практически всех “обществоведов” кто более столетия оперирует с фальшивой верой в то, что их инструменты могут измерить неопределенность.
Неспособность предсказать аномалии подразумевает, с учетом того влияния, которое оказывают аномалии на динамику текущих событий, невозможность предсказать ход истории. Но мы действуем так, как будто мы способны предсказать исторические события, или, и того хуже, изменить их курс. Мы производим на свет тридцатилетние прогнозы дефицита социального бюджета или уровня цен на нефть, не осознавая того, что мы не в состоянии предсказать их даже на следующее лето. То, что шокирует – это не масштаб ошибок наших прогнозов, а отсутствие понимания того, что они существуют. Это становится еще более неприятным, когда мы ввязываемся в смертоносные конфликты: войны по определению непредсказуемы ( и мы об этом не знаем). Благодаря этому непониманию связей между политикой и действиями, мы с легкостью порождаем “Черных Лебедей” – благодаря нашему агрессивному невежеству, которое подобно ребенку, играющему в химической лаборатории.
…Чтобы изложить историю вам нужен сюжет, содержание. Истории и метафоры сильнее любой идеи: их интересно читать и легко запомнить. Если мне пришлось заняться тем, что я называю повествовательными дисциплинами, моим орудием станет повествование.
Идеи приходят и уходят. Истории остаются“.
My wing is poised to beat
but I would gladly return home
were I to stay to the end of days
I would still be this forlorn
— Gershom Scholem, “Greetings from Angelus” [tr. Richard Sieburth]
There is a painting by Klee called Angelus Novus. It shows an angel who seems about to move away from something he stares at. His eyes are wide, his mouth is open, his wings are spread. This is how the angel of history must look. His face is turned toward the past. Where a chain of events appears before us, he sees on single catastrophe, which keeps piling wreckage upon wreckage and hurls it at his feet. The angel would like to stay, awaken the dead, and make whole what has been smashed. But a storm is blowing from Paradise and has got caught in his wings; it is so strong that the angel can no longer close them. This storm drives him irresistibly into the future to which his back is turned, while the pile of debris before him grows toward the sky. What we call progress is this storm.
Walter Benjamin 1940
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